Sunday, January 17, 2010

Miracle in Massachusetts?

All week long I followed the Brown/Coakley race and figured that just making it a close race is remarkable enough, and even though the Democrats were likely to eek it out, just making a race of it is a chilling dose of reality to Democrat congressmen all over the country.

But now it looks like Brown might actually win this thing!

A poll just out (taken on Jan 15) by Merriman group has Brown up by 9.6%. This was a touch tone poll, 4.1% margin of error, 565 voters. Not my favorite type of poll, but still. CNN is reporting that White House advisors to Obama think Coakley is going to lose. Charlie Cook says that Brown is now favored. InTrade is now running 60/40 Brown.

President Obama flew to Boston and spoke at a rally for Coakley. At the same time, Brown held his own rally. It is worth the speech Brown gave, knowing that the national media would carry it, because this is a pretty talented guy. I can see why he is winning, with messaging like this.

If Brown wins this race, President Obama loses big time. Not just his health care package, but his own political clout. He will be a political liability in Congressional races around the country - Democrats will look to distance themselves from the President, which means they certainly won't be casting any tough votes for him.

It's far from over, and part of me still can't accept that a Republican could win the seat held for three decades by Ted Kennedy. But if Brown wins, the Obamagenda is toast.

I've said many times in the last year that American's didn't vote for Obama in order for him to fundamentally transform the country, and that I was confident the people won't stand idly by while he turns us into a European welfare state.

I didn't think it would happen this quickly. Holding my breath until Tuesday!


MAX Redline said...

Actually, Croakley had two Presidents doing some stumping, and by all accounts, Bill Clinton wowed; Obama bowed. Also, I believe Ted held the seat for forty years.

The poll is pretty cruddy: small sample and, as you noted, tone. I'd prefer a wider pool, more professionally sampled. However, if a 10% lead holds true, then Brown surpasses the fudge factor in which Democrats find ballots behind the refrigerator and demand yet another recount.

If Brown does win, then much of what you predict will come to pass. Look also for a bump up in the stock market. If he doesn't win, I'm selling and putting the cash into bonds.

In any case, I think we can expect a verrry sloow counting of ballots.

Interesting that the verification line to post this note is "fates".

Anonymous said...

2012 The Movie
The Oregonian opposes a tax increase and a Republican wins the Mass. Kennedy seat?

Volcanos erupting, earthquakes happening, and now it's blowing like crazy here at my house.

What's going on?